mikepk - Latest Comments in The Long Game

Re: The Long Game

calciphus — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:12:35 -0000

Oh, I certainly agree that there will be no single feature, but when the big developers leave the platform behind, it makes a certain class of user (especially the kind that evangelize in the press, to their friends, etc).

As for Wave, I know it's a long way off (I've been playing with it for a while and still only /kinda/ get it). But what if instead of calling it wave, Google had a good way to integrate it into the general messaging platform, as a sort of "Group MMS on steroids with a timeline", you could see the value. You could also see the potential to make the iPhone and it's one-to-one style of communication, clunky "push" notices, look very dated. I don't think it'll be any one feature, like you said, but a lot of devices that are "good enough" and better tuned to a specific niche. I think the same goes for features: the iPhone, despite being quite feature-poor relative to modern smartphones, is still seen as "cutting edge". That image can't last forever, as new devices and entrants constantly take away another badge from the iPhone. There used to be a lot of unique features that added up to the iPhone "feeling" advanced to a new user. Multi-touch, large screen, thin device, long battery life, (mediocre) GPS, but many devices trump in not one, but MANY categories now. The HTC Dragon/Pro.Three looks to dwarf in many categories, whereas smaller devices like the Pixi and Droid scream past in others. There will be no one featureset that pushes it out, but the slow realization among consumers that an Apple is "okay" at a lot of things, but no longer the best at anything. Once that happens, it's very difficult to change the opinion. Look at the iPod classics...even iTunes. Both have been out-teched or out-features by one competitor or another, and while it doesn't directly dethrone them, it reminds the consumer that choice is a good thing, and that blindly buying the next generation of Apple product might be a losing bet.

Re: The Long Game

mikepk — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:43:39 -0000

That's a good point, I forgot that particular parallel. :) I think Google needs to be careful with rolling out advanced features like you describe. Even the tech elite can't quite figure out Google Wave at the moment, let alone mass consumers. Remember that all of the features of the iphone existed before the iphone appeared (browsers, touchscreens, email, etc...) It was the experience that tied it all together that made the iphone something different. I don't think features are going to drive the platform as much as cost. When Android handsets number in the hundreds of millions because every carrier subsidized free phone runs a 'smart phone' OS, that's when we'll see this strategy really bear fruit. I think it's then that we'll likely see the 'killer app' that you describe.

Re: The Long Game

calciphus — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:19:49 -0000

One particularly interesting parallel, too, is that the current rivalry sprung out of what was once a mutually beneficial relationship. The original Macintosh shipped with quite a bit of Microsoft code on it, most notably the really tough stuff (floating point calculator, for example).

Part of what made the iPhone an initial success was Google's status as preferred software vendor. Google maps was a huge success (despite being available for every other platform already), and seemingly everyone wanted to be the next Google Maps for the iPhone. However, once Google stops pulling punches and actually leaves the iPhone behind (as it did with Street View, with the iPhone being the last to get it, not the first), iPhone users will no longer feel special - they'll begin to feel the constraints of a closed platform.

What happens when every new Android phone comes integrated with Google Voice? Visual voicemail will be a thing of the past, compared to the Voicemail-to-text option on the G2-generation. Deep, OS-level integration with Google Wave will beat the pants off of the three-years-too-late MMS on the iPhone. And what happens when Google (or some enterprising startup) comes out with the next must-have feature to beat, like (say) remote DVR integration, full remote media library access, etc? The kind of stuff carriers and media companies fear, but users crave? Suddenly the gilded cage of the closed iPhone app world looks a lot less appealing.

Apple has a history of burning its best partners. Microsoft, Adobe, Google, all eventually split off and become rivals. It may be Apple's internal politics, it may just be the way relationships go, but it is always Apple's user base that suffers as a result.